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How long will social distancing for coronavirus have to last? It Depends on these factors.
- The best and most honest reply, according to epidemiologists and virologists, is simple: “It depends.” It’s not going to be over anytime soon - a matter of months rather than weeks. And these are the key factors that will determine just how many months:
- It depends on when U.S. cases finally reach their peak, It is impossible to say when that peak will arrive in the United States for many reasons. The U.S. situation, one epidemiologist said, is the equivalent of someone asking an exterminator what it will take to get rid of rats in a basement they’ve been too afraid to enter for weeks. You have to turn the lights on and examine the droppings first to figure out the scope of the problem. And the nation’s response in the absence of that knowledge has been sluggish compared with that of other countries.
- Even after the peak, we may need drastic actions to keep the virus at bay
- We could see such second or third waves of outbreaks in countries still recovering from the first. Some experts think the virus will eventually infect 40 to 70 percent of the world’s population.
- So it’s possible, even most likely, that after U.S. cases peak, Americans will still have to maintain some measures — such as isolating the infected, constant hand-washing, some degree of social distancing — until a viable vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months.
- It also depends on unknown characteristics of the virus
- Even with the action being taken now in the United States, experts say hospitals will most likely run out of beds and ventilators and be forced to ration care, choosing which patients to save and which to let die.
COVID-19 threat isn’t going to end anytime soon, say Pentagon leaders:
“I think we need to plan for this to be a few months long at least and we’re taking all precautionary measures to do that, to be in it for the long-haul,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said.
“You’re looking at somewhere around 90 days based on some of the other countries,” Milley said at the town hall. “That may or may not apply to the United States. We’ll see. If it does apply, you’re looking at probably late May, June — something in that range — maybe could be as late as July.”
(source) -https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/03/24/covid-19-threat-isnt-going-to-end-anytime-soon-say-pentagon-leaders/?utm_source=clavis
“I think we need to plan for this to be a few months long at least and we’re taking all precautionary measures to do that, to be in it for the long-haul,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said.
“You’re looking at somewhere around 90 days based on some of the other countries,” Milley said at the town hall. “That may or may not apply to the United States. We’ll see. If it does apply, you’re looking at probably late May, June — something in that range — maybe could be as late as July.”
(source) -https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/03/24/covid-19-threat-isnt-going-to-end-anytime-soon-say-pentagon-leaders/?utm_source=clavis
Hospital Capacity in Colorado:
12,558 Hospital beds
973 ICU beds, and 876 that can be converted to ICU beds
No prevention: 126k people needing hospital beds
3 months of social distancing: 50k people needing hospital beds
12,558 Hospital beds
973 ICU beds, and 876 that can be converted to ICU beds
No prevention: 126k people needing hospital beds
3 months of social distancing: 50k people needing hospital beds
Every metro area should prepare for coronavirus outbreak like New York’s:
Officials on the White House coronavirus task force warned on Sunday that “every metro area should assume they could have an outbreak equivalent to New York” and doubted the country could reopen businesses and ease social-distancing restrictions by Easter, as the president has suggested. The White House’s coronavirus response coordinator offered a grim assessment Sunday: “No state, no metro area, will be spared.”
(source) -https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/29/coronavirus-latest-news/
Officials on the White House coronavirus task force warned on Sunday that “every metro area should assume they could have an outbreak equivalent to New York” and doubted the country could reopen businesses and ease social-distancing restrictions by Easter, as the president has suggested. The White House’s coronavirus response coordinator offered a grim assessment Sunday: “No state, no metro area, will be spared.”
(source) -https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/29/coronavirus-latest-news/
Roughly 10-15% of people infected need to go to the hospital. Right now, epidemiologists are saying we can expect anywhere from 40-70% of the world population to be infected in the next year. Let’s say that’s an exaggeration and go with a more conservative 30%. In the US, that means roughly 110 million people getting sick. And of those 110 million, over 10-15 million or more need a hospital bed.
Yet, the US only has 924,000 hospital beds… and about two-thirds of those are filled at any given time with.
(source) -https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
Yet, the US only has 924,000 hospital beds… and about two-thirds of those are filled at any given time with.
(source) -https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
The US may soon face a dangerous shortage of health care workers as doctors and nurses report severe gear shortages, lax protocols, and extremely high levels of stress in their workplaces.
(source) -https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21192191/coronavirus-us-new-york-hospitals-doctors-nurses
(source) -https://www.vox.com/2020/3/26/21192191/coronavirus-us-new-york-hospitals-doctors-nurses
A pandemic will last 18 months or longer and could include multiple waves of illness.
(source) - U.S. Government
(source) - U.S. Government
Supply chain and transportation impacts due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak will likely result in significant shortages for government, private sector, and individual U.S. consumers.
(source) - U.S. Government
(source) - U.S. Government
I made two predictions given the data. First, this thing is going to spread across the planet and it’s probably inevitable that most of us get it at some point. Second, that it’s probably way less deadly than the numbers coming out of China originally made it appear. People seem to default to either panic mode or denial. It’s either,
"The world is ending!” or “What’s the big deal?”
(source) -https://markmanson.net/coronavirus-risks-and-biases
"The world is ending!” or “What’s the big deal?”
(source) -https://markmanson.net/coronavirus-risks-and-biases
Second wave in China? Will They cover it up? Are there more cases than they reported?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH1dDBKbKUg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH1dDBKbKUg
More:
3/28/20 - FDA takes further steps to help mitigate supply interruptions of food and medical products:
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-takes-further-steps-help-mitigate-supply-interruptions-food-and
3/17/20 - U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html & The 100-page plan,
3/29/20 - The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators, The Mission Failed:
As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
3/28/20 - FDA takes further steps to help mitigate supply interruptions of food and medical products:
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-takes-further-steps-help-mitigate-supply-interruptions-food-and
3/17/20 - U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-plan.html & The 100-page plan,
3/29/20 - The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators, The Mission Failed:
As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
Emergency Support Functions (ESF)
Emergency Support Function #6 – Mass Care, Emergency Assistance, Housing, and Human Services Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-06.pdf
Emergency Support Function #7 – Logistics Management and Resource Support Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-07.pdf
Emergency Support Function #8 – Public Health and Medical Services Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1825-25045-8027/emergency_support_function_8_public_health___medical_services_annex_2008.pdf
Emergency Support Function #13 – Public Safety and Security Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1470149136419-d6dc70a586f4b0bc8f0c689008974f44/ESF_13_Public_Safety_and_Security_20160705_508.pdf
Emergency Support Function #14 – Long-Term Community Recovery Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-14.pdf
Emergency Support Function #15 – External Affairs Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1470148861791-ef933ffb72424da5925348b4695b4a00/ESF_15_External_Affairs_20160705_508.pdf
(Source) -https://www.fema.gov/disasters
Emergency Support Function #6 – Mass Care, Emergency Assistance, Housing, and Human Services Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-06.pdf
Emergency Support Function #7 – Logistics Management and Resource Support Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-07.pdf
Emergency Support Function #8 – Public Health and Medical Services Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1825-25045-8027/emergency_support_function_8_public_health___medical_services_annex_2008.pdf
Emergency Support Function #13 – Public Safety and Security Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1470149136419-d6dc70a586f4b0bc8f0c689008974f44/ESF_13_Public_Safety_and_Security_20160705_508.pdf
Emergency Support Function #14 – Long-Term Community Recovery Annex https://www.fema.gov/pdf/emergency/nrf/nrf-esf-14.pdf
Emergency Support Function #15 – External Affairs Annex https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1470148861791-ef933ffb72424da5925348b4695b4a00/ESF_15_External_Affairs_20160705_508.pdf
(Source) -https://www.fema.gov/disasters